Causes of Social Instability (How the West Will Soon Fall)

From Peter Turchin’s End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration:

And popular immiseration breeds discontent, which eventually turns to anger. Popular discontent coupled with a large pool of elite aspirants makes for a very combustable combination. (12-13)

Our analysis points to four structural drivers of instability: popular immiseration leading to mass mobilization potential; elite overproduction resulting in intraelite conflict; failing fiscal health and weakened legitimacy of the state; and geopolitical factors. The most important driver is intraelite competition and conflict, which is a reliable predictor of the looming crisis. Other factors are usually present, but they are not universal. (30)